Where the Lower Fairfield County Market Is Really Heading in 2026 

Many expected 2025 to bring moderation to the Connecticut real estate market. Instead, Lower Fairfield County delivered one of its strongest years on record. 

Home Prices Didn't Just Rise, They Surged 

Sales prices across Fairfield County increased 8.6% in 2025, nearly triple the 3.2% gain seen the year prior, and the strongest real estate appreciation we've seen since 2022. Depending on the town though, the results differed dramatically. 

The biggest winners were towns that combine lifestyle appeal with commuter access. 

Darien and Fairfield saw the largest increases since 2004! 

Darien real estate: 21.5% price increase (compared to just 2.6% the prior year) 

Fairfield real estate: 18.5% increase, with median home prices reaching $1,072,500 

New Canaan real estate: 15.0% increase 

Wilton real estate: 11.6% increase 

Even within Fairfield, neighborhood-level real estate data reveals dramatic variation. Southport surged 40% with Sasco also up significantly, while town Center and Stratfield saw more modest increases.  This holds true for any town. Westport, for example, saw Saugatuck up 32% while In-Town and Downtown North dropped 26% and 11%, respectively.

Interestingly, Norwalk real estate bucked the trend with just a 3.6% increase after seeing over 13% gains the previous year.  This is a shift we'll address in our 2026 housing market predictions. 

Real Estate Inventory Remained Critically Low 

Months of supply (how long it takes to sell through the current number of homes on the market) across Fairfield County ended December 2025 at 1.5 months, virtually unchanged from 1.6 months in 2024. This remains far below the 6 months considered a balanced real estate market. 

Darien hit an extreme low of just 0.6 months of supply, ending December with only 11 active listings. While we expect home inventory to rise heading into the spring real estate market, we do not anticipate approaching anything close to balanced supply in 2026. 

The math is simple: when housing demand remains strong and supply stays constrained, home prices continue to climb. 

Days on Market Stayed Historically Low 

Despite higher price points, homes continued to sell quickly across the Fairfield County real estate market. The county average sits at 36 days on market, but this figure masks significant variation across the towns and price points. 

Towns like Fairfield, Darien, and Wilton are selling well under the county average. Westport's 56 days on market appears high but is inflated by new construction and ultra-luxury listings at higher price points that naturally take longer to sell. 

For move-in ready homes priced appropriately, the Connecticut housing market remains intensely competitive, which we are already seeing in the beginning of January 2026. 

New Construction Pushed Into New Price Territory 

New construction continued its eastward spread in Fairfield, with more luxury homes over $1.5 million appearing in the 06825 zip code than ever before. In Westport and Darien, new construction pricing pushed even higher, with only 7 closings under $3 million this year versus 16 in 2024 across both towns. 

This upward pressure on new construction real estate creates a pricing floor that supports the broader market and signals where builders see sustained demand. 

Key Real Estate Lessons from 2025 That Matter Right Now 

The Housing Market Is Hyper-Local 

One of the clearest lessons from 2025 is that broad real estate market trends tell only part of the story. Each property carries its own demand profile based on location, condition, pricing, and timing. 

From a Home Buyer's Standpoint 

Understanding housing demand requires a property-specific approach rather than broad generalizations. This means having a real estate agent who communicates effectively with listing agents to gather real market intelligence, attending open houses to sense the competition level, and being ready to move when the right opportunity emerges. In this Connecticut real estate market, relying on online comparisons or hoping things slow down rarely leads to success. 

Real estate pricing dynamics vary widely. Some homes are selling at or below listing price, but many well-positioned properties are still selling 5% to 10% above ask. Understanding where a property sits in its micro-market is critical for buyers. 

Trying to time the real estate market rarely works out. Home prices continued to rise in 2025 while mortgage rates remained relatively flat. We do not expect significant rate fluctuation in 2026. Buyers who waited for rates to drop lost opportunities, while buyers who focused on lifestyle fit and the big picture ended up at the closing table. 

From a Home Seller's Standpoint 

Presentation, preparation, and availability matter more than ever in the competitive Fairfield County real estate market. Homes that show well and are easy to view generate the strongest buyer response and the cleanest offers. 

Overpricing to "test" the market tends to hurt you in the end. Real estate buyers continue to view homes that linger on the market as tainted, even if the price eventually corrects. 

Strategy trumps hope. In a housing market this active, the difference between a strong result and a mediocre one often comes down to preparation and pricing discipline. 

The Three Forces That Will Define the 2026 Real Estate Market 

Will Housing Demand Remain High? 

Demand is not fading in the Lower Fairfield County real estate market. In fact, we see it intensifying in specific markets, particularly those along the Metro-North train line. 

In 2025, over 20% of home buyers came from out of state, with nearly 50% of those out-of-state buyers coming from New York. New York buyers continue to see the value proposition in Fairfield County real estate, but the commute is beginning to matter more than it has in the past five years. This shift will disproportionately benefit towns with direct train access. 

Even modest mortgage rate relief could bring sidelined buyers back into the housing market quickly, expanding competition without expanding supply. 

Will Real Estate Inventory Improve? 

True inventory relief remains unlikely in the Connecticut housing market. Many sellers who move become buyers again within the same market, increasing activity but not meaningfully expanding net supply. Tight housing inventory is expected to persist throughout 2026. 

Months of supply will fluctuate seasonally, rising modestly in spring and summer, but we do not expect a return to balanced real estate market conditions. 

What About Mortgage Interest Rates? 

Interest rates remain the wildcard for the 2026 real estate market, but expectations have shifted. Most forecasts call for mortgage rates to remain relatively flat in 2026, hovering in the low to mid-6% range rather than dropping significantly. 

Even small decreases tend to trigger disproportionate buyer response, so any downward movement could intensify real estate competition quickly. 

Where We See Fairfield County Home Prices Heading in 2026 

Overall, we expect most towns in Lower Fairfield County to continue experiencing real estate price increases in 2026, but at a slower rate than the dramatic gains of 2025. 

The towns we are most bullish about for real estate investment are on the Metro-North train line. As hybrid work evolves and commuting patterns stabilize, proximity to convenient transit will become increasingly valuable. We expect towns like Darien, New Canaan, Westport, and Fairfield to continue high single-digit or low double-digit price increases. 

One to Watch: Norwalk Real Estate. After seeing only a 3.6% increase in 2025, we believe Norwalk is positioned for a rebound. Given its strong train access, affordability relative to neighboring towns, and ongoing development, we expect Norwalk to deliver more substantial price appreciation in 2026.

Most towns should see home price increases in the 5% to 8% range, with the largest increases coming from towns with easier commutes. This represents a moderation from 2025's surge but still signals continued upward pricing pressure across the Fairfield County housing market. 

A major price correction in Lower Fairfield County real estate appears unlikely. The greater risk is not a crash, but a slow squeeze that makes market entry progressively more difficult over time. 

What This Means If You're Selling Your Fairfield County Home 

For homeowners, the real estate market continues to offer strong opportunities, but results depend on execution. Inventory remains low, buyer demand is coming from multiple directions, and homes that are well-prepared and strategically priced continue to outperform. 

Understanding how your specific town, neighborhood, and price point behave will be critical as we move into the 2026 housing market. Generic strategies will not cut it in a market this nuanced. 

What This Means If You're Buying in Lower Fairfield County 

For buyers, waiting for a dramatic real estate market correction has not paid off in this region. While affordability remains challenging, housing demand is durable, and competition can intensify quickly if market conditions shift even modestly in buyers' favor. 

Buyers who are prepared, financially positioned, and guided by deep local real estate insight will be best positioned to succeed. This means being ready to move decisively when the right opportunity appears, not waiting for perfect market timing that may never arrive. 

Expert Real Estate Guidance for Lower Fairfield County 

Whether you're considering a move now or simply starting to think about what the next year or two may look like in the Connecticut real estate market, having the right information early makes all the difference. Every town, neighborhood, and price point in Lower Fairfield County behaves differently, and understanding where you fit can create real leverage. 

If you're thinking about buying, selling, or just want to talk through your options in the Fairfield County housing market, we're always happy to be a resource. Feel free to reach out anytime. Whether your plans are immediate or still on the horizon, we're here to help guide you through the process with clarity and confidence. 

Anne Frewen and Lori Auerbach 

The Auerbach + Frewen Team 

Coldwell Banker Real Estate 

Luxury Real Estate Specialists in Lower Fairfield County 

📍 Serving: Westport, Fairfield, Darien, New Canaan, Wilton, Norwalk & surrounding Connecticut towns 

All data sourced from the SMARTMLS